The 2014 election is officially underway, with the filing of qualifying petitions last week. \u00a0\u00a0Five Democrats have lined up to challenge Gov. Susana Martinez.\u00a0 All five met the goal, submitting petitions with more than 3,000 signatures. Though there\u2019s little media attention so far, the race is already energetic.<\/p>\n
Martinez doesn\u2019t have re-election locked in.\u00a0 She\u2019s believed to be the heavy favorite today against an unnamed Democrat, but she could be vulnerable on a number of counts. \u00a0So far she\u2019s managed to keep her public image separate from the most serious controversies of her administration.\u00a0 But we don\u2019t know yet what voters are thinking.<\/p>\n
The Democratic nominee could make hay of Martinez\u2019 many out-of-state trips pursuing her own or her party\u2019s political interests.\u00a0 Her well-publicized jaunt to New Jersey in November, campaigning for the re-election of Governor Chris Christie, could turn out to be a liability \u2013 maybe because his reputation is now in question, or maybe just because she was gadding about the country instead of doing her job in New Mexico.<\/p>\n
We still don\u2019t know whether her administration\u2019s controversial education policies are infuriating only teachers or also angering the voters at large; or whether the public has grasped the damage done in last year\u2019s behavioral health debacle, when the state\u2019s fragile system of behavioral health services was virtually dismantled.<\/p>\n
We don\u2019t know who the Democrats\u2019 nominee will be.\u00a0 Five candidates are running, and there\u2019s formidable opposition to early favorite Gary King.<\/p>\n
And there are some potential wild cards in the deck: all those pesky proposed constitutional amendments now in consideration before the legislature.\u00a0\u00a0 Those amendments could have a big effect on voter turnout.<\/p>\n
The initiative to legalize marijuana is a case in point.<\/p>\n
A few days before the session, Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino, sponsor of the amendment, was speaker at a luncheon I attended.\u00a0 Someone asked if we could have a show of hands on the attendees\u2019 views of that issue.\u00a0 We did. I was one of a small minority voting against (I favor decriminalizing marijuana, but not through the constitution).<\/p>\n
This was a group of staid and sober adults.\u00a0 It\u2019s a safe guess that young, otherwise unengaged voters would show up in numbers never before seen in New Mexico to vote for this.\u00a0 We could also reasonably guess that they not would vote Republican.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s also a proposal for an amendment prohibiting gay marriage, sponsored by Republican senator William Sharer, which could also work against Martinez by shifting voter turnout.<\/p>\n
For an object lesson, consider the recent special election in Albuquerque.<\/p>\n
In the regular (officially nonpartisan) city election, Republican Janice Arnold-Jones, running for city council, failed by a hair to get the 50 percent required by the city charter.\u00a0 So a special election was held a month later.\u00a0 That special election also carried a referendum question on late-term abortion.\u00a0 Arnold-Jones lost in the special election to Democrat Diane Gibson.<\/p>\n
The regular city election, which included a mayoral race, had had a mediocre turnout.\u00a0 The turnout in the special election was much larger, driven by the abortion question.\u00a0 \u00a0The anti-abortion initiative was defeated. \u00a0No doubt the abortion issue brought out voters who would not have bothered to show up just for a city council race and helped Gibson defeat Arnold-Jones.<\/p>\n
A recent poll shows New Mexicans are leaning slightly in favor of gay marriage.\u00a0 If the issue gets on the ballot, that will bring out yet another constituency and could give an advantage to Governor Martinez\u2019 opponent.<\/p>\n
Neither of those amendments appears to be moving fast in the legislature.\u00a0 But things can move with lightning speed during the last few days of the session.<\/p>\n
The election is not a foregone conclusion by any means.<\/p>\n
Triple Spaced Again, \u00a9 New Mexico News Services 2014<\/p>\n
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The 2014 election is officially underway, with the filing of qualifying petitions last week. \u00a0\u00a0Five Democrats have lined up to challenge Gov. Susana Martinez.\u00a0 All five met the goal, submitting petitions with more than 3,000 signatures. Though there\u2019s little media … Continue reading